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Entries tagged as inflation

Mortgage Meltdown: INFLATION

May 14, 2008 · No Comments

Which is true? The answer is neither. The measurements of inflation are ALL skewed to give impressions to the reader that benefit the administration. 

U.S. food prices rise 0.9% — their largest monthly increase in 18 years
5/14/2008 8:33:39 AM

OR

Consumer-level inflation tame in April, U.S. says
Headline growth’s up a moderate 0.2%; core rate rises a slim 0.1%

Categories: Eviction · GTC | Honor · Mortgage · bubble · currency · inflation
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Fed Confused on Policy

May 13, 2008 · No Comments

Virtually ALL of the the decisions concerning money supply and “regulation” are being made in the private sector which is devoted to one thing by mission and by intent: transfer of wealth to the big dogs in the private sector. This clearly government function, as specifically expressed in the U.S. Constitution has been abandoned by government and usurped by the private sector.

By allowing tainted money into the political system, actions that had been plainly illegal, immoral and unethical have become a way of life, legalized by laws passed to satisfy legislator’s obligations to lobbyists. Obama’s call for reigning back the forces of money from the private sector is a call to arms and a call for alarms — to regulate and disclose the billions of dollars spent by credit/financial industries, oil and gas, coal, drugs, healthcare and crime (yes, crime because close examination shows that some private sectors will ONLY make money if the jails are full).

The purpose of government — to be the referree between capital and labor in a market allowing forces of supply, demand and innovation to determine outcome — has been abandoned and must be re-asserted. If not, we become a third world country where the rich live in electrified bunkers with their own security staff and the rest of the population remains hopeless poor and in debt. The risk of violent revolution, food riots and knee-jerk policies generated from fear or anger will be the rule rather than the exception. This is hardly the result intended by the framers of our constitution.

As the comments indicate, the Fed policy-making apparatus is in tatters.

  • It lowers the Fed overnight rate and interest rates go up — something that was thought impossible by many people. 
  • It confronts hyper-inflation with a mixture of mentioning how serious the issue is and then lowers rates again, which we all know means increasing the money supply and increasing inflation. But then lenders still refuse to give loans to small business, homeowners and other key parts of the credit cycle that spur the economy. 
  • The plain fact is that the Fed is not having much effect at all on anything. 
  • It missed the opportunity to regulate and increase its influence to thwart the bubble in housing because politically it was expedient to do so in a Repiublican administration. 

We all pay the price as the economy and our society commences the wrenching process of remaking itself with a solid foundation of productivity, more even distribution of purchasing power, less impulse purchasing, more saving, and the prospects of slower growth and recession here and abroad.

The FED is diminished, probably permanently. Up until now nobody has addressed the issue head-on that neither the Fed nor the U.. Treasury, nor the Bureau of Engraving and Printing are having much impact on money supply, interest rates, prices or economic growth.

Virtually ALL of the the decisions concerning money supply and “regulation” are being made in the private sector which is devoted to one thing by mission and by intent: transfer of wealth to the big dogs in the private sector. 

Pianalto: Fed’s strategy compatible with low inflation rate
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto said Tuesday that inflation remains a top risk to the economic outlook, but that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting strategy likely wouldn’t stoke inflationary pressures. In a speech prepared for delivery in Paris, Pianalto said she finds herself in a “challenging environment” as a policymaker. “While even the core price measures in the United States are rising somewhat faster than I would prefer, and inflation presents a key risk to my outlook, I believe that the Federal Reserve’s policy strategy remains compatible with a low and stable inflation rate,” she said. Pianalto said it was important to distinguish between inflation and relative-price pressures. End of Story

Categories: Bush · CDO · CORRUPTION · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · education · foreclosure · foreign relations · inflation · interest rates · politics · securities fraud
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Bankruptcy: Chapter 13, RISING PRICES and Foreclosure Defense

May 12, 2008 · No Comments

OBAMANOMICS VS NO ECONOMICS AT ALL

the government is charged with reporting on inflation when it has a vested interest in keep the reported inflation low both for political and financial reasons

The job of the Petitioner in bankruptcy to get a modification of the Chapter 13 plan is therefore double-whacked because of (1) a presumption against him which requires him to show a significant change in circumstances and (2) inaccurate government statistics which call you a liar when you say your basic expenses have shot up 25% just because of inflation.

Homeowners with ARM financing on their homes are triple whacked when the resets kick in. Those people in bankruptcy already should tell their lawyers to file an adversary proceeding based upon violations of TILA and RESPA. There are a number of steps you need to follow (see many posts and links on this blog) before you can file suit.

BKR attorneys are struggling with clients who are complaining that their payment plan is being negatively impacted by the surge in the cost of living. This surge has been understated by, for example, publication of the Consumer Price Index and other indices that are used to set increases in government and pension benefits like social security.

Thus the government is charged with reporting on inflation when it has a vested interest in keep the reported inflation low both for political and financial reasons. If they report it accurately, the government expenses will go up. Up until now, the fact that this was at the expense of the recipients of those benefits (which they paid into and are now being short-changed) has been felt, talked about but largely ignored. That too is coming up front and center. McCain’s statement “I’m not very good on economics” better change to “I just studied up on economics and it is very interesting, Here is what I learned.”

When inflation was comparatively low, even though understated. there wasn’t much conflict. Now, however, the basket of items used for the CPI is literaly out of touch with the real life experience of most Americans — something that Obama has started talking about and which McCain unfortunately doesn’t seem to know or care to know. 

The job of the Petitioner in bankruptcy to get a modification of the Chapter 13 plan is therefore double-whacked because of (1) a presumption against him which requires him to show a significant change in circumstances and (2) inaccurate government statistics which call you a liar when you say your basic expenses have shot up 25% just because of inflation. 

Homeowners with ARM financing on their homes are triple whacked when the resets kick in. Those people in bankruptcy already should tell their lawyers to file an adversary proceeding based upon violations of TILA and RESPA. There are a number of steps you need to follow (see many posts and links on this blog) before you can file suit.

MOST BANKRUPTCY LAWYERS ARE LARGELY UNFAMILIAR WITH TILA, RESPA AND OTHER CONSUMER PROTECTIONS AND THUS MISSING THE LARGEST POTENTIAL BENEFITS TO THEIR CLIENTS. If YOUR lawyer does not know this field then get help elsewhere. For example: www.repairyourloan.com, where you can get help on all the steps before filing suit and even get a referral to someone who can assist your attorney in filing the adversary proceeding. 

From another site where the attorneys appear to be knowledgeable but I know nothing about them —-

Rising prices give rise to chapter 13 plan modifications

What do rising gas and food prices have in common? They both eat up a substantial part of your monthly budget. And if you filed chapter 13 within the past few years, you submitted a plan of monthly payments based on a budget before gas and some food prices doubled. It may be time to modify that old plan. How so, follow this.

Your Schedule J lists your projected monthly expenses. Your monthly plan payment is calculated based as a factor of those expenses. It may be possible to file an amended Schedule J to account for today’s increased costs. As your expenses rise, your monthly disposable income decreases and your monthly plan payment may decrease as well. So, instead of paying money to your unsecured creditors, you might be able to free up some cash to use for your personal monthly expenses.

Your bankruptcy attorney can advise you whether you qualify for a lower payment. Dial that number before the cost of a phone call goes up

Categories: CDO · CORRUPTION · Eviction · GTC | Honor · McCain · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · credit unions · currency · education · foreclosure · inflation · interest rates · politics
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American Meltdown: 3AM or 8PM—Emergency vs Urgency

May 5, 2008 · No Comments

Thomas Friedman, in Michael Moore -like frankness, doesn’t make a case, create a sound bite, or try to get elected. Here he simply tells the facts. 

If all Americans could compare Berlin’s luxurious central train station today with the grimy, decrepit Penn Station in New York City, they would swear we were the ones who lost World War II.

People want to do nation-building. They really do. But they want to do nation-building in America.

Any one of the candidates can answer the Red Phone at 3 a.m. in the White House bedroom. I’m voting for the one who can talk straight to the American people on national TV — at 8 p.m. — from the White House East Room.

millions of Americans are dying to be enlisted — enlisted to fix education, enlisted to research renewable energy, enlisted to repair our infrastructure, enlisted to help others. Look at the kids lining up to join Teach for America. They want our country to matter again. 

MOST OF ALL WE NEED TO STOP VOTING BECAUSE SOMEONE SCARED THE CRAP OUT OF US OR APPEALS TO BASE PREJUDICE. WHEN WE DO THAT WE ARE VOTING AGAINST OURSELVES, OUR CHILDREN AND OUR GRANDCHILDREN.

The emergency is that the fiscal fiasco of the last 7 years is frightening larger than any public figure has stated. Who will tell the people? The reason why you hear scattered comments about this period being comparable to the great depression is that we have dug a real hole for ourselves, so big, so deep, that we can’t see the bottom anymore.

  • Buffett and others are admitting it — economists are slyly predicting it without being accused of starting riots and panic. There is general agreement that the housing market could have another 20% correction from current levels.
  • 20-30 million American homes will have greater mortgage indebtedness than they are worth within 12-14 months.  The same people are mired in credit card debt carrying interest and fees that assures( or at least threatens) the virtual permanent enslavement of a significant portion the American people. Americans spend more money on debt service (interest payments and principal) than many countries do on EVERYTHING. 
  • We have locked ourselves into an energy policy that allows both domestic and foreign enemies of freedom almost unfettered control over our property, our food, our lives and our civil liberties. We have done this while having the technology and knowledge to reduce our oil and gas consumption to a negligible amount, forever abandoning foreign policy based upon foreign fuel supplies. 
  • Inflation is already five times higher than the manipulative government statistics reported and it is increasing. 
  • Joblessness is five time higher as well. 
  • The Iraq war will take at least 7 years — our longest war.
  • Our healthcare system is in the death grip of a few people who have turned our vulnerability into an excuse to rob the public treasury and the private finance of every individual.
  • 1929? — we already there and headed downward, burdened in more debt than any country or its people have acquired in the world history.
  • And in world opinion our stock of confidence has never been lower and is clearly declining every other day, as the dollar goes lower and lower and the world’s central bankers look for alternatives for their currency reserves — anything other than the plummeting dollar. They know we caused, allowed and promoted the worst outbreak of financial fraud in history and that the measurement of the scope of the fraud keeps growing every day by trillions of dollars.

So there is the emergency. The urgency is that there is hope.

The Mortgage Meltdown was the trigger, the wake-up call that the fundamentals of our policy, our society and our economy were all wrong. The people know it, with 4 out of people asserting we are headed in the wrong direction.

We emerged from the Great Depression and we can emerge from this too, perhaps a little battered and wiser but still standing tall. The way we can do that is through ruthless truth, a tolerance for ambiguity, transcending our fears, acceptance of failure, determination to succeed, and persistent pursuit of the core values expressed, although unevenly lived, in our Declaration of Independence and our U.S. Constitution. 

MOST OF ALL WE NEED TO STOP VOTING BECAUSE SOMEONE SCARED THE CRAP OUT OF US OR APPEALS TO BASE PREJUDICE. WHEN WE DO THAT WE ARE VOTING AGAINST OURSELVES, OUR CHILDREN AND OUR GRANDCHILDREN.

May 4, 2008
OP-ED COLUMNIST

Who Will Tell the People?

Traveling the country these past five months while writing a book, I’ve had my own opportunity to take the pulse, far from the campaign crowds. My own totally unscientific polling has left me feeling that if there is one overwhelming hunger in our country today it’s this: People want to do nation-building. They really do. But they want to do nation-building in America.

They are not only tired of nation-building in Iraq and in Afghanistan, with so little to show for it. They sense something deeper — that we’re just not that strong anymore. We’re borrowing money to shore up our banks from city-states called Dubai and Singapore. Our generals regularly tell us that Iran is subverting our efforts in Iraq, but they do nothing about it because we have no leverage — as long as our forces are pinned down in Baghdad and our economy is pinned to Middle East oil.

Our president’s latest energy initiative was to go to Saudi Arabia and beg King Abdullah to give us a little relief on gasoline prices. I guess there was some justice in that. When you, the president, after 9/11, tell the country to go shopping instead of buckling down to break our addiction to oil, it ends with you, the president, shopping the world for discount gasoline.

We are not as powerful as we used to be because over the past three decades, the Asian values of our parents’ generation — work hard, study, save, invest, live within your means — have given way to subprime values: “You can have the American dream — a house — with no money down and no payments for two years.”

That’s why Donald Rumsfeld’s infamous defense of why he did not originally send more troops to Iraq is the mantra of our times: “You go to war with the army you have.” Hey, you march into the future with the country you have — not the one that you need, not the one you want, not the best you could have.

A few weeks ago, my wife and I flew from New York’s Kennedy Airport to Singapore. In J.F.K.’s waiting lounge we could barely find a place to sit. Eighteen hours later, we landed at Singapore’s ultramodern airport, with free Internet portals and children’s play zones throughout. We felt, as we have before, like we had just flown from the Flintstones to the Jetsons. If all Americans could compare Berlin’s luxurious central train station today with the grimy, decrepit Penn Station in New York City, they would swear we were the ones who lost World War II.

How could this be? We are a great power. How could we be borrowing money from Singapore? Maybe it’s because Singapore is investing billions of dollars, from its own savings, into infrastructure and scientific research to attract the world’s best talent — including Americans.

And us? Harvard’s president, Drew Faust, just told a Senate hearing that cutbacks in government research funds were resulting in “downsized labs, layoffs of post docs, slipping morale and more conservative science that shies away from the big research questions.” Today, she added, “China, India, Singapore … have adopted biomedical research and the building of biotechnology clusters as national goals. Suddenly, those who train in America have significant options elsewhere.”

Much nonsense has been written about how Hillary Clinton is “toughening up” Barack Obama so he’ll be tough enough to withstand Republican attacks. Sorry, we don’t need a president who is tough enough to withstand the lies of his opponents. We need a president who is tough enough to tell the truth to the American people. Any one of the candidates can answer the Red Phone at 3 a.m. in the White House bedroom. I’m voting for the one who can talk straight to the American people on national TV — at 8 p.m. — from the White House East Room.

Who will tell the people? We are not who we think we are. We are living on borrowed time and borrowed dimes. We still have all the potential for greatness, but only if we get back to work on our country.

I don’t know if Barack Obama can lead that, but the notion that the idealism he has inspired in so many young people doesn’t matter is dead wrong. “Of course, hope alone is not enough,” says Tim Shriver, chairman of Special Olympics, “but it’s not trivial. It’s not trivial to inspire people to want to get up and do something with someone else.”

It is especially not trivial now, because millions of Americans are dying to be enlisted — enlisted to fix education, enlisted to research renewable energy, enlisted to repair our infrastructure, enlisted to help others. Look at the kids lining up to join Teach for America. They want our country to matter again. They want it to be about building wealth and dignity — big profits and big purposes. When we just do one, we are less than the sum of our parts. When we do both, said Shriver, “no one can touch us.”

Categories: Bush · CDO · CORRUPTION · Chelation · Clinton · Edwards · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Investor · McCain · Mortgage · Obama · alternative medicine · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · education · energy · foreclosure · foreign relations · healthcare · inflation · interest rates · oil · politics · securities fraud
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Fed Lies and Sound Bites

May 2, 2008 · 1 Comment

The latest change in Fed policy sounds good. You get that warm fuzzy feeling that credit will loosen up and that things are getting better. But the fact remains, that this is ANOTHER transfer of the power to create money to the PRIVATE sector, it is another green light for PRIVATE TAXATION, and worst of all, it comes at a time when inflation is already running high and threatening to become worse than at any time in recent history.

Flooding the market with more dollars is simple: it reduces the value of those dollars. as the value goes down some businesses will appear to prosper, but when those business owners go to buy something, they will realize they lost profit even though their accountants report they made more. In nutshell, if it costs $25 to buy a loaf of bread or $15 to buy a gallon of gas, the fact that your sales went up won’t do you any good.

Beware the earnings figures from public reporting companies. There is no FASB directive that requires real disclosure of real earnings in constant currency. This will become painfully obvious as the next 12 months unfold.

THE FED
Fed expands auction, accepts wider collateral
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks, said Friday that it was increasing the funding it is providing to banks and announced that, for the first time, it was willing to accept bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards.
“In view of the persistent liquidity pressures in some term funding markets, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are announcing an expansion of their liquidity measures,” the Fed said in a statement.
The Fed took the move in an attempt to flood the market with supply and lower short-term lending rates, such as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.
The U.S. central bank announced an increase, to $75 billion from $50 billion, in the amounts auctioned to eligible depository institutions under its biweekly Term Auction Facility, beginning with the auction on May 5.
This increase will bring the amounts outstanding under the TAF to $150 billion.
The move to expand the TAF was widely anticipated because of strong demand for loans through the program.See full story.
“The program is now reaching a magnitude where it can play a significant role in plugging the gap between the remaining demand for unsecured term funding in the bank market and the latest decline in supply following the run on Bear Stearns,” wrote Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP.
The expansion was “probably marginally disappointing because there was a widespread expectation … that the Fed would extend the term of at least some TAF auctions to three months,” wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.
The TAF, announced on Dec. 12, was followed in March by the creation of several other Fed lending programs targeted at different sectors of the credit markets.
All told, the Fed has now offered to lend up to $462 billion in cash and Treasurys to the markets, in addition to the nearly unlimited funds available through the discount window and the primary credit dealer facility.
The three-month Libor rate — a benchmark for lending between banks — was 2.78% on Thursday, well above the 2% federal funds rate. Crandall said extra supply from the Fed in the next three weeks should tighten the spread between the Libor and fed funds rates.
Deeper cooperation
The Federal Open Market Committee also has authorized further increases in its existing temporary currency-swap arrangements with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank.
These arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $50 billion and $12 billion to the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, respectively, representing increases of $20 billion and $6 billion.
The FOMC also authorized an expansion of the collateral that can be pledged by bond dealers in the Fed’s Schedule 2 Term Securities Lending Facility auctions of Treasurys.
Primary dealers may now pledge AAA/Aaa-rated asset-backed securities, in addition to already eligible residential- and commercial-mortgage-backed securities and agency collateralized mortgage obligations.
Accepting asset-backed paper could help provide money to the student-loan market, Crandall noted. End of Story
Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch’s London bureau chief. Washington Bureau Chief Rex Nutting contributed to this report.

Categories: Bush · CDO · CORRUPTION · GTC | Honor · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · foreign relations · inflation · interest rates · politics
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INFLATION ALREADY MOVING PAST 15%

April 15, 2008 · 3 Comments

The latest reports show that devaluation of the dollar combined with other economic factors has launched what will be the worst round of inflation we have seen in our lifetimes. And it will most probably feed itself into a frenzy despite all efforts to soften the blow. The 1.1% increase in production costs is only the tip of the iceberg.

  • All businesses are feeling the pinch of rising “costs” (more dollars) against consumer reluctance to pay higher “prices.” 
  • Price baskets that reflect reality (actual impact on the life of an ordinary American family) show something in the range of 15%-25% average. 
  • Job growth has been non-existent for years despite data to the contrary: the reports count ANY job to replace a job that paid 4-10 times as much as “job creation.”
  • Purchasing power has been declining since before this latest round of hyper-inflation.
  • Debt is at an all-time high for the country and for individuals.
  • Taxes and other “private taxation” deductions from U.S. individual income  have steadily increased when compared to other nations
  • The Fed is stuck between an economy diving into recession and an economy that is virtually ruined by its own currency. If it raises rates to try to curb inflation, it won’t succeed because most of the money supply is created from Wall Street. Raising rates also has the added factor of decreasing confidence in the U.S. economy, which will only deepen the recession. If it lowers rates to counter the recession it won’t succeed for the same reason. Lowering rates has the added factor of creating a new bubble to cover-up the old one. 

When will we finally get the message and bubble and bust is not a very good way to do business?

  • Fundamentally, the first line of attack should be on staunching the bleeding and stopping the foreclosures and evictions. Just taking control of that and putting it under management, will have an enormous impact on our currency, our World position, and our financial markets. 
  • restoring confidence in the financial markets is the first priority. The ONLY way this can be done is by stopping foreclosures and evictions, restoring value to balance sheets, and providing a path to full recovery, even if it is not totally assured. 
  • The perception that the U.S. financial markets cannot be trusted can ONLY be overcome by establishing international oversight, at least for transparency and reporting purposes. In order to retain national sovereignty, obviously, regulation in the United States can only be by U.S. agencies.
  • But in the global economy, other countries and economic unions have the same rights we do when it comes to regulating money supply and whether to permit certain actions in their part of the pond. We have now painted ourselves into the corner of submitting our own regulatory authority to the decisions of other nations. It’s fact that we are just going to have to live with.

Our passion for dominance should be replaced with a passion for fairness and stability.

Categories: CDO · CORRUPTION · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Investor · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · education · foreclosure · foreign relations · inflation · interest rates · politics
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Mortgage Meltdown: Inflation, Devaluation and the Price of Your Home

April 14, 2008 · No Comments

The reality of inflation is that it is robbing nearly everyone blind and is going to get much worse before it gets better.

 

http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/08/inflation-milk-bread-ent-fin-cx_ml_0408grocerprices.html?partner=weekly_newsletter

 

  • This is the period I was talking about where merchants and consumers alike get caught in the middle. Some merchants can take advantage of inflation but most are stuck with being the “bad guy” — it is always the messenger that gets shot. This is like a triple barraled cannon. 
  • So consumers are paying more and more but they don’t even know that the merchants are doing everything they can to soften the pinch on consumers. In fact, they think the opposite is true and they blame merchants for using inflation as an excuse of increasing their margins when in fact the merchants are making far less money. 
  • This can ONLY mean that future price increase, at least double what we have seen are in order and as you can see from the front page of the Wall Street Journal, the effects of inflation are causing social unrest and violence. So to your question about home values: the bottom lines is that VALUES (measured in today’s dollar will probably continue down for a while). PRICES will continue up. 
  • When it costs $20 to buy a loaf of bread it is inconceivable that the price of a house won’t eventually reflect these changes even if the correspondence is uneven and fluctuating. 
  • Using models that appear to be valid now this can be figured as follows in an example I made up: 
  • Note the difference between value and price. 
  • VALUE is first based upon the price you could get today. It is therefore the same as price. 
  • VALUE changes with market conditions. Increased demand and diminished housing inventories causes demand to rise in proportion to supply and VALUE goes up. 
  • PRICE represents the measurement of VALUE. 
  • PRICE changes occur as a result of two things: (1) changes in VALUE and (2) changes in the value of the currency being used to purchase the asset. So if inflation and devaluation of the dollar were not a factor, then VALUE and PRICE would always be the same. 
  • And usually the difference, while present, does not figure prominently in the negotiated price for a house. 
  • That is all changing now because the dollar is slipping every other day and prices of everything are going up at rates reaching nearly 100% in some cases and the rate is expected to increase exponentially. 
  • So NOW the inflation and devaluation of the dollar must be taken into account when projecting the future price of an asset (in this case a home). In a flat market with inflation, the home would be no more desirable than it was before. But because of the fall of the purchasing power of the dollar through inflation and devaluation, the PRICE would still go up. Example. $200,000 house is still worth the same after 3 years. BUT the price still goes up by the amount of inflation. 
  • Stated inflation through reporting of the CPI is now like EPA mileage — completely out of touch with reality. And reality is what people deal with, not government statistics. 
  • EXAMPLE: Today’s home VALUE: $200,000 
  • Today’s home Price $200,000. 
  • 1 year from Now: 
  • home VALUE: $160,000 - $180,000 in today’s dollars as of April 14, 2008 (assumes 20% decline in home VALUES, which might be excessive) home 
  • PRICE: $184,000-$207,000 as of April 14, 2009 purchasing power of your dollars, assuming 15% inflation 
  • 2 years from now: 
  • home VALUE: $180,000 - $200,000 in today’s dollars as of April 14, 2008 (assumes 10% increase in home VALUES, which might be excessive) 
  • home PRICE: $234,000-$260,000 as of April 14, 2010 purchasing power of your dollars, assuming 15% inflation 
  • 3 years from now
  • home VALUE: $190,000 - $210,000 in today’s dollars as of April 14, 2008 (assumes 5% increase in home VALUES, which might be excessive) 
  • home PRICE: $275,000-$304,000 as of April 14, 2011 purchasing power of your dollars, assuming 15% inflation 

Of course this might look good on paper, but the only way it will have any meaning to you is if you sell the real estate for the “inflated” price, pay off your mortgage, and downsize to something much smaller. The reason is that the price of everything has gone up along with your house. 

Categories: GTC | Honor · Investor · Mortgage · currency · inflation · politics
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Mortgage Meltdown and Credit Crisis Measurements and Collateral Damage: $41.5 trillion

March 31, 2008 · 1 Comment

That’s Trillion with a “T”

  • Most people agree that we can’t correct the problems that are still unfolding unless we admit the severity of the problem. The current estimates of a maximum of $450 billion damage are absolute lies designed to give reassurance to people who could and probably should cut and run. As long as we deny what is really happening, the real solutions will not emerge. The current group of proposals can be be all logged in under one word : patchwork. 
  • The real solution is comprehensive political action together with regulatory reform that goes in an entirely different direction than allowing money to be controlled more by political force of individuals in power with their own private agendas.
  • Here is a one page summary of the measurements of the actual damages caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis, coupled with the effect of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on all mortgages and housing, coupled with the effect on inflation and private losses rippling out from the collapse of liquidity, credit, jobs, and social services. Some fo this information was taken from the BBC News Website.
  • Mortgage Meltdown: The real measurements and statistics 

Categories: CDO · CORRUPTION · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Investor · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · foreclosure · foreign relations · inflation · interest rates · politics · securities fraud
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Investment Advice

March 16, 2008 · 2 Comments

  • Several people have emailed me regarding what to do with their investments. I am not Warren Buffett and I don’t have a crystal ball so what I say here should be checked against other knowledgeable analyses. Keep in mind that most people are full of s–t. Everyone thinks they are a genius in an up market. In a down market, everyone still thinks they are a genius, like gamblers because they count their successes and don’t count their losses. Most economists, securities analysts (I used to be one), institutional traders (I used to be one), fund managers (I used to be one) etc are ill-trained, poorly educated, not well-rounded, and basically go with the herd. They sound good but they don’t know a thing about real economic behavior. Account representatives are even worse. Their job is to get you to do something without concern to wether you make or lose money (if you find one that doesn’t fit the mold, hold onto him or her for dear life).
  • First any investment in money market, CD, US Treasury, or other strictly dollar denominated assets including actual cash or deposits on hand should be converted to non-cash assets or non-dollar denominated assets. There are several internet banks and other companies that will allow you to keep accounts in dual currencies or more. My assumption is that the dollar is in for a crash. My theory is that if I am right, then you will make a lot of money. If I am wrong, there is little to suppose that the Euro or Canadian dollar or the Yen or Yuan will do badly. Either way you are probably pretty well protected.
  • Precious metals are always an inflation hedge but you are depending, again, on perception of value as opposed to real value. It is not likely that Gold ever again be “money.” hence it will always be a commodity and thus subject to the rules and trends of the commodity trading marketplace. The same holds true for corn, oil, and other commodities. yes they are likely to increase in value (and they present an inflation hedge as well) but you probably should not venture into commodities now unless you are already a successful commodity trader. Pick an ETF or other fund and let someone else make the trading decisions.
  • Stocks are not necessarily bad particularly if the company does not depend upon US consumer spending, and if the company does not hold or depend upon receiving US dollars. If it is getting Euros in payment for goods and services or other currencies around the world that are not pegged (i.e. a currency whose value is derived from whatever the value of the U.S. dollar is — BE CAREFUL),  then if it is a good company it will do well in the intermediate term even if it gets hit with the usual over-selling that occurs when an economy fails. 
  • Don’t stop looking at fundamentals just because it is in another currency. It is true that you “make money” if the dollar dives and the foreign stock dives less, but that is not a very safe strategy. Find even financial institutions that are oversold because of the general fear of bank failures. Avoid Citi, BOA, Lehman, and all of the other major national banking groups. They are all at risk. Think about the firms that figured out the crash months or years ago, like Goldman Sachs and see how they are doing now. 
  • Bonds are not necessarily bad either for the same reason, and the same with CD equivalents etc. As long as principal interest, dividends etc are paid in Euros or some other currency not tied to the dollar, you should do OK, if you pick right on the company or mutual fund.
  • Keep in mind that most people are unwilling to accept the coming crash and that they may be right and that I may be wrong.
  • Why Euros? Because it is the ONLY currency of consensus. 2 dozen countries are involved in the Euro, thus giving you immediate diversification of risk. 
  • Real estate: Avoid bargain locations — they might never come back, avoid locations that might be affected by flooding from rising sea levels, use leverage if you can afford the staying power, and stay in for the long haul (3-5 years minimum). This is a non-cash asset whose value will rise proportionately to the decline in the value of the dollar. If the dollar does not decline, and you have avoided problematic locations, you will still be OK. 
  • Jewelry: For short term trading and turnovers in the marketplace there are probably some profits to be made. I don’t recommend it. There are a lot of people who know more at a glance than you would with an electron microscope and a handbook.
  • Lending Money: Tie the interest payments and the principal to the real rate of inflation and use an index like oil rather than the CPI which at this point has been rearranged so many times the tires are worn out. 
  • Borrowing Money: Avoid borrowing at ridiculously high rates (in case I am wrong) and avoid if possible, the imposition of indexing on inflation. If indexing is going to occur, argue for the CPI, which the government will keep at the lowest possible levels in order to keep social security and other payment increases to a minimum. A reasonable loan will put you in the position of tremendous leverage and profit if I am right and still give you ordinary returns on investment if I am wrong.

Categories: ATM · CDO · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · foreclosure · foreign relations · inflation
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Mortgage Meltdown: Consensus versus Intervention

March 16, 2008 · 1 Comment

  • I’ve been working on this problem for over a year. 
  • No act of prescience or brilliance was required to know that if you pour water from a pitcher, eventually it will be empty even if you splash some more in from time to time. There isn’t enough money in the world to save us from a crash. 
  • The ONLY thing that save our economy and the many other economies of the world that are tied to our fortunes is by consensus: 
  • Stop the foreclosures and evictions, 
  • redo the mortgages with incentives for people to stay in their houses, 
  • create a payment pattern that is possible even if it is not ideologically congruent with your philosophy, 
  • restore CDO values as close as possible to par, 
  • enlist the culprits who created this mess because they are the ones with the open channels to get this done, 
  • add to the recent moves to accept CDOs at or near par for valuation purposes (thus increasing capital reserves and allowing the release of billions in loans that are waiting to be made), 
  • change the rules of civil procedures in each of the states on foreclosure to stop or slow them down, 
  • change the rules of civil procedure on pleading to force the foreclosing party to state its case more clearly — especially as to ownership of the loan, 
  • change the rules of civil procedure to stop or slow evictions, and 
  • change the rules of civil procedure to require mediation after the issues are joined, thus providing some breathing room for this all to get worked out. 
  • Legislation can’t do it, executive leadership won’t do it. That leaves the rest of us and hopefully the judiciary, without sacrificing due process and protection of property rights. 
  • It can ONLY happen with consensus. Without agreement, this will crash, inflation will destroy what is left of the middle class and a good part of the upper class and drive the U.S. into third world status before you can say “$30 per gallon.”

Categories: CDO · Eviction · GTC | Honor · Mortgage · Obama · bubble · community banks · credit unions · currency · education · foreclosure · foreign relations · inflation · interest rates · securities fraud
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